421# metal silicon: East China quotation 14800-15500 yuan/ton;
DMC: 13200-13600 yuan/ton;
107 glue: 14000-14300 yuan/ton;
Raw glue: 13600-14000 yuan/ton;
Mixing rubber: 12400-13700 yuan/ton;
Dimethylsilicone oil: 15500-15800 yuan/ton;
Methanol (Lubei) : 2525 yuan/ton;
Chloromethane: 2400 yuan/ton.
Market analysis
At present, the spot market price of metal silicon is relatively stable.
On the supply side, in August, the southwest region's supply growth rate was the fastest, the production increase was relatively smooth, Yunnan maintained a high level of construction, and the northwest Xinjiang region's increment was stable, and the growth expectation was still expected next month. On the demand side, the silicone market is mainly stable, and a number of monomer devices have restarted recently, which supports the demand for metal silicon. Polysilicon prices are stable, with the rise of the photovoltaic industry chain boom, enterprises to the warehouse is good, downstream procurement demand gradually improved, the supply and demand situation is good, the procurement enthusiasm of the crystal factory is not reduced, and a new round of centralized procurement is about to start at the end of the month, the demand for metal silicon has increased steadily; Aluminum alloy, the price runs smoothly, just need to purchase mainly.
Overall, the metal silicon supply side is expected to increase, and the social inventory continues to be high. The spot market is tight, the overall price remains stable, the futures delivery inventory is rising steadily, and the metal silicon spot market focuses on price fluctuations and downstream demand changes in the short term.
At present, in terms of DMC, the market is stable and weak. A monomer factory DMC in Shandong fell 200 yuan/ton from last week to 13,200 yuan/ton, and other monomer factories also lowered DMC prices by 200-300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of DMC market fell below 13,000 yuan/ton mark. At present, the mainstream price of DMC market is 13200-13600 yuan/ton. In August, the mainstream price of DMC market rose from 12,900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13,600 yuan/ton, after which the price remained stable, the overall narrow range fell about 200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, the mainstream price was around 13,400 yuan/ton, and the overall increase was about 500 yuan/ton. In terms of downstream products, 107 rubber, raw rubber, mixed rubber and silicone oil prices are more stable, and local declines.
In the future market, it is expected that the overall price of silicone is stable and weak in the short term. Specifically, on the supply side, as the early parking monomer devices in Shandong, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places are restarted successively, the monomer load is significantly increased, and the DMC supply will increase. Demand side, the downstream terminal market after this round of phased stocking, most of the inventory digestion period, wait and see to fall mentality is strong, take goods to maintain a small amount of on-demand mode. At the inventory end, as the downstream has turned to just-needed procurement, the supply has increased, and the single factory or re-inventory has increased the shipping pressure. At the raw material end, metal silicon prices have rebounded recently, and DMC cost support is strong.
On the whole, the short-term silicone price is stable and weak, and the decline is limited, focusing on the changes at both ends of the supply and demand of silicone, the supply side pays attention to the changes in the start of monomer plants and the price dynamics of large factories, and the demand side pays attention to the terminal market orders when the traditional peak season is approaching.
Recent information
The Ministry of Finance: Continue, optimize, improve and implement the policy of tax and fee reduction, support the development of private enterprises, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, resolutely crack down on arbitrary charges, arbitrary fines and arbitrary assessments, and support the solution of the problem of government arrears to enterprises. We will accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds by local governments, continue to strengthen the reserve and post-investment management of special bond projects, improve the efficiency of the use of special bond funds, and guide and promote private investment.
China Merchants Port: From January to July, container throughput continued the overall stable trend of the first half of the year, with a cumulative increase of 0.4%. Since June, the monthly container throughput has begun to increase, and the business volume in July increased by 1.8% month on month. The third quarter and fourth quarter are the traditional peak seasons, and it is expected that throughput will further recover.
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