The rise was also bigger than in February. According to the latest data, the price of DMC has gone up by 1000 yuan. This was mainly driven by the global economic recovery and the recovery of industrial production, especially in the automotive and electronics industries.
Whether the gains can be sustained, however, depends on a number of factors. First, the development of the global epidemic will have an important impact on market demand. Demand could be affected if the pandemic returns or the economic recovery slows. Second, the movement of raw material prices is also an important factor. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, it will further push up the price of DMC. Finally, government policy measures may also have an impact on the market, such as tax cuts or stimulus measures that may increase market demand.
The latest silicone quotation may vary depending on market supply and demand. However, due to the increase in DMC prices, silicone prices may also be affected to some extent. Analysts believe that due to increasing market demand and rising raw material prices, silicone prices may continue to rise for some time. However, specific price movements also require close attention to changes in market dynamics and related factors.
Market analysis
At present, the metal silicon market, the metal silicon spot market rose, after the Dachang price adjustment, other regional manufacturers have tentatively raised the price today, futures continued to rise, the main contract 2310 rose 1.08%.
In the future market, the supply side, the silicon factory in the northwest region is temporarily stable, the basic full resumption of production in Yunnan, and the Sichuan region is expected to gradually recover with the end of the Universiade. On the demand side, the price of silicone continues to rise, and the short-term inventory pressure of manufacturers is small and the price mentality is strong; In terms of polysilicon, the overall price gradually rebounded compared to the previous period; Aluminum alloy to metal silicon steel need to purchase mainly. Overall, it is expected that the overall volatility of metal silicon spot prices in the short term is mainly stable.
At present, the market is steadily rising in DMC. A single plant in Shandong province DMC continued to rise 100 yuan/ton to 13,400 yuan/ton water delivery price, compared with the end of July, this round of increases has accumulated about 800-1000 yuan/ton, leading DMC this round has risen 600 yuan/ton. With the continuous increase in the price of DMC in the main factory, the price of the remaining monomer factories generally increased or chose to close the sale. 107 rubber and raw rubber follow up obviously. At present, the mainstream price of DMC market is 13400-13600 yuan/ton.
We believe that this round of rise is different from the rise of the silicone market in February this year, which is mainly because of the recovery of market confidence and optimistic expectations under the background of the optimization of prevention and control policy and the traditional demand season for silicone, the downstream of silicone ushered in the replenishment tide, and the rise caused by the bottom-up transmission of demand. This round of rise is caused by multiple factors such as the supply side of the mono plant to reduce production and increase the closure of the sale caused by the market spot circulation decline, the downstream terminal to take goods enthusiasm, historical low prices, cost support, macro positive and market rising sentiment resonance, the main reason is the supply side of the top-down transmission caused by the rise.
From the perspective of the future market, on the supply side, in the near future, the parking load of the single plant will be reduced in parallel with the resumption of driving, and the space for the short-term decline of the load of the single plant will be limited, and the production reduction effect on the supply side of DMC will be diminishing. On the demand side, the terminal stage stock is completed one after another. At the inventory end, recently, with the improvement of orders, the inventory pressure of the single plant has been reduced. At the raw material end, the spot price of metal silicon rebounded slightly in a stable way, and the DMC cost was supported. On the macro side, policies such as real estate and consumption support are frequent, which is beneficial to the downstream construction industry and automobiles of silicone. On the whole, it is expected that the price of silicone will gradually stabilize in the short term, and the continuation of this round of rise needs to focus on the follow-up of terminal orders in the downstream market of silicone and the commencement of monomer plants.
Recent information
National Development and Reform Commission: Issued a Notice on Improving the Government's integrity compliance Mechanism and Optimizing the environment for the development of the Private economy. We will work hard to resolve government dishonesty, such as changing orders, new officials ignoring old debts, undermining fair market transactions, and endangering the interests of enterprises. We will improve the business environment, increase the confidence of private enterprises in investment, and promote the development and growth of the private economy. It is necessary to make full use of the toolbox of disciplinary measures for systemic dishonesty in the development and reform.
United States: In July, CPI rose 3.2% year on year, ending 12 consecutive months of decline, estimated 3.3%; Month-on-month increase of 0.2% versus 0.2% forecast; Core CPI rose 4.7% year on year, compared with an estimate of 4.8%.
Caam: In July, automobile exports of 392,000 units, an increase of 2.7% month-on-month, an increase of 35.1% year-on-year. Among them, 101,000 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 29.5% quarter-on-quarter and 87% year-on-year. From January to July, 2.533 million vehicles were exported, up 67.9 percent year on year. Among them, 636,000 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year.
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